10/12 – Rob Knight’s Tuesday Morning Forecast
A cold front extended southward from an area of low-pressure across the Midwest, Mid-South, and then southwestward across central and southwestern LA. This will be about as close the front will make it to our area as southerly return flow around high-pressure is anchored over the northern Gulf and Southeast CONUS will cause the boundary to lift northward as a warm front today and Wednesday.
The return flow will yield a gradual increase in low-level moisture. Another front will make it into the Gulf south this weekend with Friday and Saturday to be the most active days over the long-term forecast. The cold front will begin moving into the region on Friday, which could be enhanced by whatever moisture is left behind Tropical Storm Pamela. There appears to be an agreement in guidance with Saturday being the best chance for any rain and thunderstorms. However, precip chances are limited to 30-40% throughout the area. Instability parameters are supportive for thunderstorms, but that seems quite limited. After frontal passage, expect high temps in the upper 70s, lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.