1/3 – The Chief’s “SEVERE POTENTIAL” Tuesday Morning Forecast

The focus today is the storm system due into our region. Expect the overall forward progression of the front to slow, with the main threat of discrete super-cell t-storms ahead of the main front.

To break it down into what to expect in terms of severe weather today, there are a few limiting factors to consider. The low level jet does somewhat weaken, but the very moisture rich boundary layer doesn’t need much help maintaining heavy rain fuel. Moisture flow is near seasonal max if not exceeding it. Generally it looks to be around on average 1 to 3 inches area wide with locally heavier amounts across locations that receive multiple thunderstorms. Because of this potential, the is a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding with our neighbors. Typical flood prone areas as well as urbanized areas are likely to be the most vulnerable. Rivers and tributaries are pretty swollen around the area, so a quick rise in those may also be possible as well with a probable continuation of ongoing River Flood Products.

Simply put, all modes of severity will be possible with the main threat of heavy rain and strong straight line winds. Eventually, the system will begin to dig upstream helping push along the front later tonight and early Wednesday morning. This should put an end to the rainfall and convection from west to east in time. Behind this Pacific frontal boundary, winds will shift to the west, which helps switch the fog machine into the off position, finally. Again, since this is a Pacific front, expect very weak cold air advection (CAA) to take place with temperatures still warming above average on Wednesday before dropping to more seasonable numbers just outside the short term period.

High pressure at the surface will continue to build into the region on Thursday. Aloft, a subtle trough will continue to push eastward across our region late this week. Some weak cold air advection will be ongoing behind the Pacific frontal boundary, which should take our temperatures down more toward seasonal averages after record breaking Highs/High mins early in the week.

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