1/18 – Rob Knight’s “Much Warmer” Afternoon Forecast

A slow warming trend will begin Tuesday as moisture will also begin to move back into the area. The overall upper level pattern looks fairly consistent between several long term models. The period begins with the upper level pattern over the Northern Gulf Coast is marked high-pressure. At the surface, high-pressure will be across the Southeastern US with southerly flow over the region. This will allow increased moisture and warming temperatures to return to the area.

Increased moisture also means the return of precip chances to SE LA and portions of MS. Upper level impulses will move eastward through the zonal flow over southern LA/MS. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary across Louisiana will act as a focus for rainfall as these impulses move eastward.

Unsettled weather and rounds of rainfall will likely continue from Thursday into the weekend However, timing, placement, and rainfall amounts will be hard to pin down this far out as any upper level waves and the placement of the surface boundary will likely change over the coming days. Also there could be periods of dry weather depending on how far north of south the frontal system meanders. Temperature-wise, given the warm air mass in place, highs and lows will be more moderate. Highs through this period will be in the 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

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