1/12 – The Chief’s “Morning Severe Threat Potential” Friday Morning Forecast

With an approaching system to the west, showers and t-storms are expected through midday. It seems that the best instability and forcing will remain north. Locally, isolated rain showers were moving northeast across mainly western portions of the area. Southeast winds were transporting moisture into the area, with a WIND ADVISORY in effect. There are multiple concerns in the short term include at least some potential for severe weather this morning, windy conditions pretty much all day, and the return of freezing temperatures overnight.

As enhanced lift currently over Texas moves northeastward this morning, it should produce enough mid-level cooling to allow at least a brief window for isolated to scattered surface based convection to move across the area. The more favorable conditions for severe weather will be to the north and northwest of the local area, but the local threat is non-zero. The expectation is that convection will move rapidly across the area this morning, with little or no precipitation expected beyond noon local time. Expect rapid clearing behind the front by early afternoon.

Overnight temperatures likely to fall to near or below freezing across the northern half of the area, but uncertainty regarding whether winds drop off completely will keep forecast temps above the colder model numbers. Saturday should be relatively nice, albeit a bit cool with highs in the mid and upper 50s.

The main focus of the extended portion of the forecast will be the arctic cold airmass that will move into the area for much of the workweek. The upper weakness near Edmonton this morning will move mainly across the northern Plains through the Great Lakes over the weekend, but will help to pull much colder air into the center of the country. At least for the weekend, that colder air is expected to remain north of Interstate 20. A disturbance moving through the Rockies and the Plains Sunday and Monday will finish the job of pulling the arctic front southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Surface temperatures Monday afternoon will be too warm for freezing or frozen precipitation to accumulate on surfaces, but there is some potential for a brief period of light freezing rain (or possibly sleet) to the north of Interstate 10 Monday evening/night.