1/11 – The Chief’s “VERY WARM WEDNESDAY” Morning Forecast

The relatively dry air over eastern gulf has basically moved to the southern gulf and back up into the western gulf. Normally this process allows this air to modify with respect to higher RH values. But this is not the case as this air has at least dew pt depressions of 3+ and high dew pt values in the mid-60s.

A cold front moves through Thursday and should enter the area around 9am and out of the area around 4pm. Instability and shear values are at the lower end of the scale for severe wx but dynamic forcing is lacking. The best and strongest forcing with this system is along the frontal interface. This is the only place that any showers/t-storms become surface based. So if something is going to occur, it would likely be with the activity along the frontal axis Thursday.

Once the cold front moves through, cooler dry air will settle over the area as a strong surface high moves through Thursday into Thu night. Winds will decouple and go calm by Friday evening setting up a strong radiational cooling night bringing temps down to a light freeze over the northern half of the area. And lowest temps could flirt with 29F but this should be right at sunrise and the amount of time at these temps should not be excessive. Return flow will set up again Sunday and it will be another round of trying to figure out the fog issues before the next front moves near the area by the middle of next week.

Categories: Weather Headlines