09/14 Ryan’s “Last Dry Day” Thursday Forecast
I mentioned in yesterday’s forecast that today will be the last of the “fall-ish” days until later in actual season which begins in about a week. Today was just as gorgeous as advertised, but we’re already beginning to feel the increase in humidity, and the first rains in some time are right around the corner. Don’t get too discouraged though, even though the relatively “perfect” weather is leaving things are just going to go back to our normal summer time pattern, meaning hot and humid afternoons with a few afternoon thunderstorms possible.
A weakening trough is currently positioned in the NW Gulf and will slowly make it’s way Northward today and tomorrow. Some media outlets (and the National Weather Service) are a bit higher on the percentage of rain, but it doesn’t seem it will be very organized, and rain will likely only pop up in the warmer parts of the afternoon on Friday. Saturday will be a bit rainier, but still only around 40%, which will translate into scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Jose has weakened into a tropical storm, but should reorganize and strengthen back into a hurricane by the beginning of next week. No major landfall still expected, but the forecast path has shifted considerably West, and isn’t tailing of to the Northeast like it was yesterday, so the Northeast Coast should watch a little more closely. Everything depends on whether the trough I mentioned above “tugs” the storm closer to the coast, or re-directs it to the Northeast. Disturbance 2 in the tropics became Tropical Depression 14, and is expected to slowly strengthen into a tropical storm over the next day and level off as it moves North-Northwest. Disturbance 1 has an 80% chance of becoming a depression over the next 4 days, and is about 800 miles West of TD 14. This storm has a more due West track, and seems to be moving towards the Caribbean by the middle of next week. We’ll need to watch this one closely.