09/04 Ryan’s “Pre-Front” Monday Forecast
With the exception of a Tuesday night/Wednesday morning cold front, we can expect a much drier week ahead! The front will move into the Gulf by Wednesday afternoon, bringing some cooler and drier air that will linger through the weekend. Before the front, the weather will be warmer and humid, but afterwards we’ll see clear, sunny skies and relatively drier air. Temperatures are expected to remain in the mid-to-upper 80s with lower humidity, so even the heat indices should remain manageable into next week.
The tropics are a little more complicated than the local forecast. Irma strengthened into a Category 4 storm this afternoon, and will flirt with becoming a Category 5 over the next few days. The current forecast track has it pushing more southerly than the runs over the weekend, skirting just North of Puerto Rico, The Northeastern Lesser Antilles, Haiti, The Dominican Republic, and Cuba. By Saturday, it will either turn Northward, cross Florida long-ways, and head up towards the Northeast; or continue Northwest between Cuba and Florida and into the Gulf. It’s still too early to make a responsible U.S. landfall prediction just yet. Stay tuned for updates.
There are two other disturbances with moderate-to-significant chances of becoming the next tropical system. Disturbance 1 is still moving away from the West Coast of Africa, and has an 80% chance of tropical formation by the weekend. This storm is travelling Westward, but South of Irma’s current track. Disturbance 2 is in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche, and is drifting very slowly Northwest. This system has a 50% of tropical formation over the next 5 days, and conditions seem right for at least a tropical storm by Thursday evening. The front moving through the area Tues/Weds will be integral in deciding where both of these storms end up, and we’ll continue to monitor these developing situations.