08/23 Ryan’s “Harvey Returns” Wednesday Forecast
While the next few days shouldn’t provide much more than a few afternoon showers, Tropical Depression Harvey is expected to contribute to a rainy weekend. Local conditions will remain in the low 90s to upper 80s with moderate-to-high humidity and those pesky short-lived t-storms, but Harvey is expected to make landfall late on Friday night or early Saturday morning and if its remnants drift East as many models are suggesting, we could see some dangerously high totals. However, if Harvey moves into SE Texas and dissipates quickly, our totals will be more manageable, but still as high as 2-4 inches in this scenario. There is still considerable disagreement with the various models, but we’ll have a better understanding in the next few days.
Tropical Depression Harvey formed this morning after moving away from the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche’s high sea surface temperatures. Wind shear in this area is light-to-moderate, but much of Harvey’s time and energy will be spent today becoming better organized so it will slowly strengthen at first, then rapidly intensify through Thursday and into Friday until it makes landfall. The NHC and I both agree that while it’s possible Harvey could become a Hurricane just before landfall, it isn’t a guaranteed aspect of the forecast just yet. The other tropical disturbance meandering around the Bahamas and Southern tip of Florida isn’t expected to develop in a significant way until after it’s been swept into the Atlantic, but will still bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida peninsula and Bahamas.