08/27 Ryan’s “Ida Latest” Friday Evening Forecast
Ida is now a hurricane, and will continue to organize and strengthen as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast.
Ida continued to strengthen today and is now a category one hurricane near Cuba. Interaction with land and some slight wind shear will limit it for the moment, but rapid intensification will begin soon. That means Ida will continue to strengthen and organize as it pushes towards the SE Louisiana coast. The cone of uncertainty still includes part of South MS on its far eastern edge, but chances of a direct landfall here are much lower now.
That doesn’t mean we are in the clear though.
Expect significant, life-threatening storm surge along along the South MS coast, with higher values in Hancock County. Current estimates have the surge at 7-11 feet, diminishing the further east you go. Winds will linger in the “tropical storm force” range, likely averaging 35-50 mph throughout Sunday evening and into the night. Rain estimates lie between 7-15″ on average, meaning even higher local totals are possible. These effects can worsen or lessen if the landfall location shifts eastward or westward respectively.