07/14 – Brantly’s “Hot and Humid” Wednesday Forecast

 The dog days of summer keep rolling on across the area as high-pressure will shape the forecast. Models are once again coming into good agreement over the idea of another round of pop-up airmass thunderstorms very similar to yesterday. As we continue to heat up late this morning through the afternoon hours, we’ll get a weak lake/sea breeze boundary to develop around Bay St. Louis and just north of the beach. The sea-breeze will push further inland with rain potential around 20/30% this afternoon.

Things quiet down tonight with only a lingering shower or storm this evening, but likely turning dry going into early Thursday morning. Same story going into Thursday with very similar overall atmospheric set up leading to yet another day of airmass/pop-up thunderstorms. Rinse/repeat for Friday, but with much more widespread deeper southerly flow as mentioned before, convection will develop around the same times and drift north along northward surging outflow boundaries. Main threats in any stronger storm will continue to be wind gusts 30-40 mph, locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.

We may need to keep an eye on a very weak tropical inverted trough in the north- central Gulf by this time frame rotating around the western periphery of the west Atlantic Ridge, which takes this generally north to around central portions of the northern Gulf coast. It doesn’t seem likely to develop into anything but may cause a slight increase in precip potential.

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