06/19 Ryan’s “Tropics” Monday Night Forecast
Tropical Depression 3 and Tropical Storm Bret both officially formed in the Gulf and Atlantic respectively earlier this afternoon, and the former will have a significant impact on our local weather.
Convection and moisture associated with TD3 already extends hundreds of miles North and East of the storm’s actual “center,” and regardless of where it makes landfall we will see significant rainfall. Current estimates have areas of South Mississippi accumulating up to 10″ of rain by Thursday afternoon, and Flash Flood Watches have already been issued for all six coastal counties until then. Thankfully, this systems intensity will be limited by considerable vertical shear in the area, meaning a “low-to-average” tropical storm is the strongest we’ll likely see. While any tropical system is dangerous, flash flooding & coastal flooding will be our greatest issues. We’ll continue to monitor this situation in the coming days.
TS Bret will likely strengthen some over the next few days, but will ultimately dissipate within 72 hours.