05/28 – Rob Knight’s “Mostly Sunny” Thursday Morning Forecast
The pesky upper low near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border will gradually weaken today as it moves east across Arkansas. Tonight it will open up into a sharp trough and begin to be absorbed into a northern stream trough over the Great Lakes. During the same time, a north-south oriented stationary front to the west of the forecast area this morning will migrate slowly east into the area through Friday. Models indicate some drier mid-level air working into the area around the base of the upper low today.
This should cut down on the coverage of showers and storms today vs yesterday, however any storms that do develop could again produce gusty winds due to the dry mid-level air. Look for a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and storms, especially over northern and western half of the forecast area today.
The overall threat of strong to severe storms today should be lower than yesterday due to weaker deep layer shear. Shear remains slightly higher just to the northwest of our forecast area today, and the potential for strong to severe storms is slightly greater there. Due to the dry air in the mid-levels and afternoon destabilization, there will again be a Marginal Risk of strong to severe storms over our area, again primarily for strong gusty wind potential. Some localized heavy rainfall will also again be possible today.
Just up to the northwest of our forecast area, across central and northern portions of AL and MS there is a Slight Risk of severe storms where shear is a little more pronounced and lapse rates a little steeper. Temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s and low 90s over interior areas, with mid 80s along the coast.