05/24 Ryan’s “Tropical Weekend” Thursday Forecast

The last several days have been predictably similar with random afternoon showers, but tropical moisture is moving in that could dramatically increase rain totals. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with Invest 90L, so we’re still a few days away from a likely path and intensity forecast.

The issue for us regardless of this system’s development will be the heavy rainfall, estimated totals exceeding 10″ in some cases.

Even that isn’t nailed down just yet though because one of the models I’m leaning towards has shifted it slightly further East from its last run, which had a substantial impact on the predicted rain totals. In this case the total for Wiggins dropped from 10.33″ to 2.37″ for the same time frame, so where this storm ends up will be the biggest determining factor in terms of what sort of dangers we’ll see.

While waterspouts will be possible in the Sound or near the coastline, flash flooding and river flooding will be our greatest threats.

Coastal flooding could also be a problem if the center of the low slides to the West of us, further demonstrating how much the track uncertainty is complicating forecasts. Either way, it looks like our Memorial Day weekend won’t be a safe time to be on the water or even outside if it comes close enough. Stay tuned to WXXV News 25 for updates through the weekend, and download our free WXXV Weather Authority app for live radar updates and tropical information.