8/8 – The Chief’s “Strong Tropical Flow” Monday Morning Forecast

There is little change in thinking from the previous forecast concerning the overall trend of gradually increasing moisture, lift, and rain chances through Wednesday. The overall upper level pattern will see a disturbance gradually shift from the eastern Gulf into the central Gulf through the first half of the week. As this disturbance moves closer to the central Gulf coast, moisture flow will increase from near climatological normal. This will lead to an increased threat of some localized street flooding issues in low lying and poorly drained areas by Wednesday. Additionally, an astronomically higher tide range is in place this week, and this will lead to minor coastal flooding issues on south and east facing shores. This minor coastal flooding could exacerbate street flooding issues in low lying coastal areas as the heavier rainfall will be slower to drain. The primary area of concern will be in Hancock County this week. High temperatures will be near average today, and should start to trend slightly cooler than average by Wednesday due to expected increase in convective development.

A pattern change is still expected to occur during the latter portion of the week as an inverted trough axis pushes into the western Gulf and a strong long wave trough axis deepens over the eastern third of the CONUS. Both of these features will be working in tandem on Thursday as a plume of deep tropical moisture is drawn northward toward an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall rates could approach 3 to 5 inches per hour in a few locations, and threat of more substantial localized flooding will exist in our more flood prone locations. Additionally, an anomalously high tide cycle will also continue with minor coastal flooding expected on south and east facing shores. This could exacerbate local drainage issues in a few spots, primarily in Hancock County. The extensive cloud cover and rainfall in the area should keep highs well below average in the mid-80s.