7/4 – Rob Knight’s “Independence Day” Afternoon Forecast

A southerly surface winds will help to advect warm air and moisture into the area, enhancing lifting in the environment. Elevating atmospheric moisture will allow for more efficient rainfall with higher rainfall rates. Scattered showers and storms will be likely daily, especially during the afternoon and evening hours with peak daytime heating. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible inside stronger storms. Some frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph) will be possible.

Today, in particular, short term models are showing a drier mid-level especially in westernmost areas. Meanwhile, the easternmost areas will be fairly moist throughout the atmospheric column. So, it will be possible to see some stronger storms with downbursts potential near the edge of these areas. High pressure will continue to dominate the upper level pattern through the weekend. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm and moist air into the environment, which will help enhance lifting. Scattered showers and storms will be likely daily, especially during the afternoon and evenings hours over land thanks to peak daytime heating. Marine convection will be higher overnight. Rainfall that develops will have the potential to be more efficient with higher rainfall rates. Locally heavy rainfall could be a problem inside of stronger storms Thursday through the weekend.