12/31 – Rob Knight’s “Gray/Wet” Monday Morning Forecast

Dense fog continues this morning where 1/4sm or less is noted in traffic cams along the MS coast along U.S. Hwy 90, but confined to about the first 1 mile or less of the coast. An area of weak low pressure circulation in the northwest gulf is in the process of being drawn northward and dragging deeper fetched tropical moisture from the Yucatan Peninsula. Models are indicating showers this morning with a thin line of t-storms this afternoon with frontal passage. It does seem plausible that one or two showers or storms may approach severe levels farther inland away from marine layer influences, with SPC depicting a MARGINAL risk north of the viewing area.

Nonetheless, all convection should be well east of the area in time for New Year’s Eve midnight festivities. As has been the indications in the modelling, the front moves only so far into the north gulf then stalls. Another front will move through the area Wed/night through Thursday with strong dry air to flush the moisture out of the area.