6/12 – The Chief’s “Watching The Tropics” Wednesday Morning Forecast

Overall the forecast as a whole is a tale of two scenarios with the first part being: high confidence, mostly dry, and HOT. The second part: highly uncertain, increasing rain chances and possibly very wet, and thus cooler than the first part of the forecast.

A stalled surface front is still draped right along almost the entirety of the northern Gulf coast. High pressure dominates pretty much all of the eastern CONUS. The other surface feature is a weak disturbance over the eastern Gulf associated with the heavy rainfall that plagued the southern half of the FL peninsula. This area has been highlighted by NHC as having a low probability of developing into a TROPICAL SYSTEM but it will have zero impacts on our area as it will move across FL and enter the Atlantic.

Hot temperatures with rain-free conditions will continue into the weekend. Sunday through Tuesday, models are suggesting at least some rain moving in. The increase in cloud cover along with rain helps to cool things off…but how much rain, when does it arrive, and how long does it stick around is quite uncertain.