5/13 – The Chief’s “Severe Potential” Monday Morning Forecast

The upper flow is now supportive and subsequent lower level flows are also lining up to support the training of HEAVY RAINFALL. The first of 2 rounds of activity will move though this morning, with the second system coming in late today. Models develop and area north into a line to the NW of the area this morning and slowly sinks it southward. This first system could cause some flooding and severe weather issues, but if it does not cause any issues, it will at the very least prime the area ahead of the next. Both of these systems will be capable of flooding rainfall and severe storms. The Flood Watch will remain as this should verify for several locations. Rainfall amounts are still coming in from 3 to 6 inches with the highest of these numbers over coastal Mississippi through 7am Tuesday. Once the second system moves to the east, it will clean the area(clearing skies and stable conditions). This should occur by Tuesday afternoon.

The frontal boundary that is helping to cause all of this will have sunk back into the gulf by late Tuesday. The next upper feature will then move out into the plains by mid-week with surface return flow forcing this boundary back to the north moving back over the area possibly as early as Thursday and this whole thing looks to play out again similar to this event. The first disturbance moves through midday Thursday and may hug the coast. This should be associated with the warm front. The next main system will move along the cold frontal interface as it stalls across the area with an abundance of deep moisture Fri. This is at least one solution, but as one can clearly see with the current system, this will almost surely change several times before we get there. The general synoptic structure looks valid, but we will definitely need to get closer to even think of resolving the smaller scale features.