3/21 – The Chief’s “Increasing Clouds, Enter Rain Late” Thursday Morning Forecast

At the surface, high pressure is currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico with low pressure over the Texas Panhandle. Clouds will continue to spread eastward into the area, with a few showers this afternoon.

The moisture flow will gradually increase due to southeasterly low level winds. The Arizona weakness will move eastward across Texas tonight and be located over central Mississippi by Friday evening. It will probably take a good chunk of the day to get the lowest layers saturated, with light rain eventually becoming likely across about the western 2/3 of the area before sunset, and just about everyone getting in on the act overnight. Any thunder today should be limited to the coastal waters.

The potential for thunder does spread further north overnight as the approaching disturbance destabilizes the airmass somewhat. Any significant thunder, however, would be mainly during the daytime hours on Friday. Thunderstorms will be more prevalent Friday while any significant threat of severe weather would be along the Louisiana coast or the coastal waters, a few reports of small hail near or north of Interstate 10 wouldn’t be a real surprise.

The disturbance will cross the area Friday will be into Alabama early Saturday morning, taking any rain with it. High pressure will then move across the area for the remainder of the weekend.