9/5 – The Chief’s “Changing September Pattern” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

The month of September will bring a changing pattern where dominant high-pressure in the SE begins to break down allowing cold fronts to move through the area. The upper pattern is becoming more active across the northern half of the US. Upper level high pressure was noted over West Virginia and over northern Mexico. This will bring rain-free conditions in the near term along the area.

The upper weakness should be pulling away from the area this morning, and we can already see drying evident in the water vapor imagery across the area. Forecast soundings show that moisture content values should diminish as surface high pressure builds back into the area from the east. Convection overnight tonight should remain mostly offshore, with any convection on Wednesday generally limited to lake/sea breeze boundary interactions.

In most areas, high temperatures today should be similar to Monday, in the lower/middle 90s. Areas that got heavy rain yesterday never got out of the 80s, but will recover somewhat today. The upper level high pressure will park over New Mexico and west Texas for much of the week before retreating westward a bit over the weekend. An approaching cold front will bring rain chances back to the area Thursday. Rain chances will be rather low Friday into the weekend around 20/30%.