7/31 – The Chief’s “Hotter Than HOT” Final Morning of July Forecast

Earlier this morning, the MCS continues to decay as it moves south of our marine waters. Expect a few more isolated showers or storms over the marine zones through the morning hours, but overall, nothing as widespread expected at this juncture. With little in the way of upper level support across the central Gulf States, expect only limited rain chances through mid-week.

Another hot day expected as models are still on the high side with temperatures at or just over 100 degrees, especially across the interior counties. Heat index values will surge this afternoon and reach Excessive Heat criteria…so needless to say the warning will continue. Tuesday will be another hot day across the region as high pressure continues to move westward across the OK and Red River Valley. With the dome of high pressure residing just upstream, expect subsidence to keep the column dry and the boundary layer well mixed. Low level winds will not produce much in terms of boundary layer moisture maintenance, which should very well mix well, especially inland. But with the weak surface winds inland advancing lake/sea breezes may help keep moisture values high enough with borderline excessive heat apparent temperatures expected. Will continue to Excessive Heat Watch for now, but at the very least a Heat Advisory will be necessary for Tuesday IF NOT an Excessive Heat Warning.

Overall the synoptic pattern will remain favorable for continued mostly hot and dry conditions to start the long term period. The heat bubble will continue to reside in rather close proximity to our region. Along the eastern periphery of this feature, we`ll need to watch potential for t-storm complex development. All convection aside, heat will certainly remain a concern with heat headlines likely through the rest of the week, and perhaps even into the upcoming weekend for most if not all of the area.