7/7 – The Chief’s “Wet Pattern Continues” Friday Morning Forecast

Some light showers continue across the area, mainly near the coast and over the coastal waters…with more of the same on tap for today. We will have another day today where we continue to balance between heat and possible rain chances. Given the lack of development yesterday and a similar set up showing on short term models, have gone a little below guidance and on the lower end of precipitation chances. Again, if that occurs temperatures may be a little higher than forecast…but with the expected cloud cover, should remain generally in the lower 90s. High pressure is still centered in the central Gulf with additional ridging to the west over Texas and New Mexico. We should once again have enough of a weakness to put us in northwest flow and allow any impulses that move through the area to enhance rain chances. Locally heavy rain will once again be possible given the amount of moisture available and instability to work with.

Tomorrow continues the trend of difficult forecasts. Given the number of variables on the evolution, opted to stay pretty close to model guidance. If things are slow to develop again in regards to convection, heat index values could approach 105 today and be in the 105-110 range tomorrow. Just a reminder that higher rain chances do not equal a lack of heat concerns.

Next week ,high pressure is expected to continue to remain firmly in place over Texas and the desert southwest. How far east towards the area it builds will play a large role in the local weather. Rain chances remain elevated through a good part of the beginning of the week, mainly during the afternoon hours. Some locally heavy rainfall could be possible where any training occurs and WPC is highlighting an increased concern in the possibility of excessive rainfall towards the end of the weekend. As we move toward the middle of next week, rain chances taper off somewhat and will allow the heat to become the primary concern again.