2/22 – The Chief’s “Near Record High Temperatures” Ash Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

Today our area will reside between a strong upper level high pressure over the western Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and a strong upper level disturbance ejecting out of northern Mexico. A frontal boundary will begin to approach, but as it loses motivation by the upper disturbance riding northeast away from the region, it will stall likely pretty close to the I59/20 corridor. Winds will begin to increase later this morning with the strongest winds staying west of the area, but breezy conditions none the less. As the atmosphere decouples tonight, winds should relax quite a bit across the region. Winds just off the deck too will subside leading to what seems to be a continued low stratus or fog situation overnight.

Thursday can be highly characterized as “abnormal” from a temperature perspective. Close to all-time record highs will be possible, especially interior climate sites. The modeled outlook for the extended period remains the same as we have been discussing in the past several outlooks.

Upper and surface high pressure moving westward into the Gulf of Mexico will control the weather for several days. By Monday into Tuesday we expect to see an upper low moving northeastward from the desert southwest across the central Midwest and into to OH River valley. This low drags a week front with the potential for rain across our area late Monday.