9/7 – The Chief’s “Changing Pattern” Wednesday Morning Forecast

The area is still under the influence of upper level weakness which is slowly moving east while further west has a large area of high pressure with a cutoff low pressure system. This weakness  has been the primary driver of our current unsettled weather with large cloud deck with showers and thunderstorms over much of the area especially SE Louisiana. For the most part, storms have primarily remained over the Gulf waters where some storms have been able to crop up. While these storms could be extremely efficient rainmakers, have not really seen this materialize due to lower coverage of showers/storms over land. I expect this same scenario today as well.

Starting Thursday, the upper level weakness will develop into a upper level low centered around the northern Gulf coast. Where precisely this said low develops will make a difference whether or not we’ll be wetter or drier forecast wise. One option is the low develops further west of us, which gives us that onshore flow bringing plenty of moisture from the Gulf into the area. The alternate is if it ends up east of us, drier air from inland would help cut down on rain chances.