9/22 – Rob Knight’s “Autumn Begins” Morning Forecast

As Beta made landfall along coastal SE Texas last night, what is left of the circulation is forecast to take a turn and pull more to the East Texas/SW Louisiana. The future track of the remnants of Beta will continue to the NE and stay well NW of south Mississippi. Expect ongoing bands of heavy rain/training cells to continue through the next couple of days which could lead to areas of FLASH FLOODING as the ground continues to become very saturated. Depending on the eventual speed of the low exiting the area will determine when we eventually clear up. Taking a blend of global guidance does slowly clear out conditions late week and into the weekend. However, this could be short lived as the next disturbance will push south across Texas. This will again place the northern Gulf coast along the risk of increased rain chances upcoming this weekend.

The good news is by early next week, this possible disturbance becomes absorbed by a stronger longwave trough digging deep across the east coast and pushes out, and will be followed by a strong, progressive NW to SE flow aloft. This will support strong surface high pressure and may actually deliver a cooler/drier shot of air following a strong cold front.

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