9/21 – Rob Knight’s Final Day of Summer Forecast

The workweek forecast will be dictated by the track of Tropical Storm Beta, which has become somewhat better organized overnight. Extensive cloud cover at multiple levels will continue to affect temperatures, maintaining cooler continental influences for the next couple of days. Rainfall forecast is tricky in that the characteristics of the bands from Beta has been providing heavy rain just off the coast and extending well south. These banding features will likely spread inland along the coast, but uncertain as to how far the bands will advance. Generally thinking 1-3 inches will be possible with locally higher amounts over the next 2-3 days, which should not be too much of an issue initially, but as soils saturate and flash flood guidance values lower, some flooding may begin to take place.

Impacts from Beta should be in the dissipation stages by mid to late week, as strong high pressure will become situated over the spline of the Appalachians which typically means enhanced drainage aspects in the overnight hours. One fly in the ointment may be what is currently a respectable circulation moving west off the lower Florida coast is shown by the models to trail in the wake of Beta into the central gulf. While models do not currently develop anything with this feature, it may become a factor in maintaining rain chances and cloud cover in the mid to latter part of the week. Global models to show a decent autumn cold front moving into the gulf states next weekend, which will be more than a welcomed sight for the region.

Categories: Weather Headlines

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *