9/19 – The Chief’s “Very Hot Temps Ahead” Monday Afternoon Forecast
High pressure will expand across the southern US early in the week and should be centered across TX. An upper level weakness looks to clip the Great Lakes and Northeast mid-week. It’ll cause the eastern side of the ridge to erode. For these forecast days, that will have little to no impact on the temps. Relatively low dew-points are still quite expanded and will however, yield near record highs. Model show the surface low centered just NW of the area, surface winds should be light but north to northwesterly. In that environment, overachieving temps are common. Therefore, forecast highs for Wednesday and Thursday are a bit above guidance.
By Friday, that upper weakness will be racing east into the western Atlantic. However, the cold front associated with it will still be sagging southwest towards the area. Some guidance suggests it will try to move into the northeastern half of the forecast area. Not totally sold it will completely reach the area but may at least lower dew-points some. The rest of the forecast period will be decided by whether the decaying high pressure centered over TX is completely collapsed by a reinforcing trough to the north or not. Latest guidance suggests that does occur. This should bring temps back down to normal for this time of year and possibly reintroduce low end rain chances.