9/16 – Rob’s “Remnants of Nicholas” Morning Forecast

Focus will become more toward rainfall rates and not as much on totals area wide. Rates could be around 2 to 3 inches per hour today through Saturday and isolated areas could see 3 to 5 inches over that time frame. But area wide totals would be more in line with 1 to 2 inches.

Regardless, soils are saturated for many locations and these rates would surely push those areas into flash flooding. The majority of this should be diurnally driven but some areas of heavy rain will be found overnight as well. The remnants of Nicholas will meander around the SW part of Louisiana today but will finally get pulled northward Friday and out of the state by Friday night. The problem is the wake trough these systems leave behind which is basically a plume of tropical moisture itself keeping the potential for heavy rain going through Saturday.

Weakness in the pattern across the Lower Mississippi River Valley will not be in any rush to depart the area. Moisture levels as measured by precipitable water values, are likely to remain in excess of 2 inches across most or all of the area through at least the weekend, and likely into early next week. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue each day, being most numerous over land during the day, and over marine areas at night.

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