9/14 – Rob Knight’s “Extended Wet Pattern” Morning Forecast
As Nicholas continue NNE after making landfall last night, rain will continue through much of the region. The fetch over the gulf will also increase along with wind speeds to around 15-25kt and remain there for about 24 hours maybe a bit longer. This will be enough to bring up a Coastal Flood advisory for values around 1-2ft above normal from SW Pass westward.
As with any very slowly moving tropical system, rainfall amounts will be high and should be a common 5-10 inch storm totals along and south of the 1-10/1-12 corridor with isolated higher amounts. North of this area amounts are expected to be lower but still enough to bring a Flash Flood Watch over all the area. And if any higher total rainfall values or if they shift slightly northward, this would become a problem for people in SW Miss as well, so will go that far north with the watch but there will be a precip gradient over southern Miss that lowers as one moves north. Heavy rain potential will be slow to move out and we could see this linger into Thursday.
There is still some uncertainty in the extended portion of the forecast regarding the eventual disposition of Nicholas. Current NHC forecast (10 PM CDT Monday) has it dissipating over south central or southwest Louisiana Thursday. That being said, at this time, don`t see much in the way of drying forecast into and through the weekend.