9/13 – The Chief’s “BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS” Tuesday Morning Forecast
The base of the upper level disturbance and surface cold front is now in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Other than some outer coastal convection south of the MS coast, it should be quite pleasant across the majority of the region with highs only in the mid-80s. Moisture flow will be rather low as a NE wind will bring in a drier air mass. As the evening and overnight period progresses, high pressure will continue to build in form the north and usher in post frontal dry/cool airmass. Trended the forecast lows for tonight close to the model guidance which is near the 25th percentile of the guidance. That puts lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees as far south of I-10 on the MS coast. This will be the coolest temps the region has seen since late May. But there should be no surprise that it will be very short-lived. The upper disturbance will be racing east by mid-week and ridge following right in its footsteps. That’s not to say we’ll jump back into 70+ dew-points just yet but near normal temps return by Wednesday. Rain chances basically nil at this point in the forecast, except for the outer coastal.
By Wednesday, moisture starts to creep back up into the area from the gulf as ridge centered north of the area slides east and onshore flow returns. Higher chance for rain along the coast and offshore of Mississippi will be starting Thursday and creeping inland into the weekend. By Monday, models agree that an high pressure will develop over the southeastern CONUS. This will knock rain chances back down as the subsidence of the ridge takes over the area. So, expect mostly dry conditions to last throughout the extended portion of the forecast.