8/7 – Brittany’s “Wet Conditions Ahead” Sunday Evening Forecast

Forecast remains stubbornly similar for the next few days before a more focused system impacts the region late this week. The mid level ridge that has been dominating the southern half of the CONUS will begin to retrograde becoming centered over the 4 corners by Monday night/early Tuesday. As this is happens the TUTT currently just east of the GA/FL coast will begin to move across FL tonight and tomorrow and should be entering the northeastern Gulf late Monday afternoon or early Evening.

Wednesday through Friday there will be multiple things coming into play. First will be the TUTT that we will be dealing with on Tuesday but the TUTT should continue moving the WSW. However, that will leave an inverted trough across the region while the L/W trough is digging over the Appalachians and and Atlantic coast. Not only is this a weakness but it might actually provide some mid level support as the deepening L/W has the first s/w nudging into the Lower MS and southeastern CONUS while trying to send a weak boundary through the Mid MS and TN Valleys. That boundary could be a bigger concern come Thursday and Friday. The support and moisture will make for rather east storm development Wednesday. Storm motion will be slow and propagation will be dictated by outflow boundaries. Moisture will be abundant with PWs still above 2″ and with low level flow becoming more southeasterly we may be tapping into some deeper tropical moisture. This is setting the stage for a rather efficient warm rain process setup.

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