8/4 – The Chief’s “Early Morning Rain” Thursday Morning Forecast

A weakness/subtle mid-level inverted trough over the northern Gulf continues a slow retrograding motion towards the WSW along the outer periphery of a mid-level high pressure centered over the central US/inter-mountain west. Both factors considered will be more than enough to ignite widespread convection later this morning thru the afternoon/early evening hours. Given high moisture content, weak storm motion and potential for complex boundary interactions/collisions from any messy convection will lead to localized flash flooding from intense rain rates (2-5″/hr or more).

Although severe potential is not in the equation, I can’t rule out a rogue updraft from outflow boundary collisions causing sub- severe wind gusts 30-40 mph, but severe weather will not be a concern today. Convection comes to an end early evening (earlier if convection becomes widespread earlier) leaving behind residual mid/upper-level cloud cover that will be slow to dissipate through the overnight hours. But going into Friday, this weak impulse drifts WSW into the NW Gulf. Saturday and Sunday is looking a lot like Friday with lower rain potential.

Monday and Tuesday, may need to watch another retrograding inverted mid-level disturbance over the FL/GA/Carolina coast, but fails to make it as far west as the northern Gulf. None the less, rain potential will once again be on the increase.

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