8/27 – Rob Knight’s “Hurricane Watch” Friday Morning Forecast
HURRICANE WATCHES have been issued for coastal Mississippi, with a TROPICAL STORM WATCH inland and to the east. Guidance is relatively tight in terms of Louisiana as the most likely to be impacted. The timing and the intensity of Ida is the main forecast concerns. Models are pegging the intensity on the higher end, and the Gulf is currently very favorable conditions for development with little wind shear and warm currents. The question is just how much it will strengthen and how quickly it moves as it crosses through the Gulf of Mexico.
Now is the time to make sure you are prepped and ready. Don’t get stuck on the exact track, as track errors 3 days out is about 120 miles, and impacts can extend well outside the cone.
A wave of low-pressure will continue to push across the Gulf South today, keeping increased rain potential in the area. A plume of deep tropical moisture will accompany this feature and allow for continued higher than normal convective coverage this afternoon. Tropical Storm Ida will follow in the wake and is expected to directly impact the entire forecast area as early as Sunday around midnight and continuing through Monday.
Ida will continue to bring direct impacts to the entire forecast area throughout the day on Sunday with slowly improving conditions into Monday. In the wake of the tropical system, deep layer northerly flow will take hold by Tuesday and remain in place on Wednesday. This northerly flow pattern will advect some drier mid-level air into the region.