8/19 – The Chief’s “Another WET Start” Friday Morning Forecast

Multiple disturbances expected to move through the eastern US today. One is moving through Arkansas and east Texas into Louisiana, while a stronger one is dropping southward through the Dakotas. Scattered showers are moving across the area, with most near or south of Interstate 10.

Water vapor imagery continues to show a plume of moisture extending from south Texas to the Carolinas, covering much of our area. The current disturbance that is moving through Arkansas and east Texas tries to suppress this southward somewhat over the next 24 hours or so, but doesn’t appear to have much success, except perhaps over southwest Mississippi. Of course, with moisture values so high, there’ll be isolated high rainfall rates (2-3 inches/hour or higher) that will cause issues if they occur over urban areas.

Wish we had better news for the weekend, but as mid-level flow becomes primarily southwesterly, we will continue to have daily threats of showers and thunderstorms as impulses plow through the rather moist airmass. That should hold high temperatures in the 80s in most areas. If there`s a day that would be a bit more preferred to have warmer high temperatures, it would be tomorrow, when areal coverage might be a little bit less, especially over northern portions of the area.

Unfortunately, the longer range global models continue to show disturbance and high moisture content across the area through much of next week. There’s going to be daily showers and thunderstorms across the area. While a specific location may not see showers or storms every day, operate under the assumption that it`s going to rain at least once each day more often than not next week. That’s going to stop temperatures from getting real hot, but humidity levels will remain high, so no one`s really going to notice the difference.