8/12 – Brittany’s “Drier Conditions Ahead” Friday Evening Forecast
The upper level pattern across the country, and somewhat locally, is starting the transition process that will begin to finally lower rain chances for the northern Gulf Coast. Progressing into Saturday, what we`ll see is the eastern nose of the ridge NW of the region begin to extend southeastward towards the northern Gulf Coast and that easterly wave in the northern Gulf will be moving towards the western Gulf. At the same time, the trough over the northeast will be shifting east. Drier air will then begin filtering from the north. This will start the trend of lowering POPs, but only for far northern portions of the CWA on Saturday. It`ll probably be one of those days with a sharper gradient between rain/no rain.
Model guidance agrees that starting Sunday, our rain chances will decrease into the middle of next week. The ridge situated over the Central Plains will provide northerly mid to upper level flow over the area. By Sunday, a weak surface boundary driven by the northerly flow no longer appears that it will make it to the CWA. Rather, looks like it will get hung up in central MS. However, mid level drier air will come into the area and subsequently lower rain chances and actually increase temperatures. We will finally have a break from the high PW values over 2 inches down to 1.6-1.8 inches. Therefore, rain chances will be lower on Sunday and through the beginning of the week while temperatures increase slightly with highs back to near climatological norms.