8/11 – The Chief’s “Another Round of Heavy Rain” Thursday Morning Forecast

Today the flow will shift more northerly as a weakness along the coast continues to amplify activity. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will move southward toward the I-20 corridors in L/MS before slowing down as it nears the coast. At the surface, the fire hose of low level moisture will continue from the southeast as the area remains on the western periphery of the subtropical high centered across the W Atlantic. Today appears to be another wet day with efficient rainfall producers once again. The surface front continues to inch closer Friday into the weekend but becomes stationary. Again, the continued return flow (although a bit weaker) will continue to allow/maintain deep tropical moisture over the area, this will provide yet another source of low level convergence for enhanced diurnally driven convection. Temperatures over the next couple of days will likely be a bit on the lower side given the increase in rain and cloud cover.

Mid-upper level flow is expected to remain northerly on the southeastern flank of the central CONUS ridge through the latter period which will allow for passage of weak disturbance and associated surface boundaries rounding the high pressure. A weak frontal boundary is expected to move southward and stall near the gulf coast on Saturday which will serve as a sufficient forcing mechanism for focusing storm development especially along and south of I-10 this weekend.