7/23 – Monday Morning “Cold Front” Forecast

A weak cold front is now just to the south of our area and will ling through the next few days becoming stationary by tomorrow. Satellite and radar shows a good bit of mid-level cloud cover and some light precipitation from I-20 down to the coast.

Another impulse will move through the area today. This impulse will help to bring drier air to the lower levels of the atmosphere and push the mid-upper 70s dew points out of the area. Unfortunately, it looks like that won`t occur until after sunset tonight. That means one more day of oppressive conditions over roughly the southwest half of the area. This should be the last day of advisories, as all guidance agrees on lower dew point air across the area tomorrow.

The other concern is the potential development of convection near and south of the surface boundary, where the better moisture exists. It`s probably going to take a while to get going today, as we will need to lose the mid and high level cloud cover first. If any t-storms do pop off, it will likely extend a few hours into the evening before running out of fuel. Beyond this evening, expect little or no convection through Wednesday due to drier air over the area.

The upper trough begins to elongate more NE-SW by Thursday, this will allow moisture to refocus across the area, and expect a slow increase, day by day, in rain chances across the area later in the workweek into the weekend.