7/17 – Brittany’s “Typical Summer Pattern” Sunday Evening Forecast

Going into the new workweek, not many changes to note. The region will still be within the H5 weakness between the subtropical/Bermuda high to the east and the very hot 596dam heat bubble over the desert southwest. This will keep a much drier northeasterly flow aloft over the region, which should overall limit convective coverage and intensity. However, similar to today, cannot rule out some activity along mesoscale features such as lake/sea breezes and thunderstorm outflow during the diurnal cycle. For this time frame, continued lower-end POPs with the best chances along the Gulf/Lake shore.

A “cold” front will begin to drop southward from the mid MS River Valley as the parent upper trough begins to amplify over the SE U.S. Similar the the last week or so, a weak front may stall by midweek, but the surface trough axis should remain just to our east placing our region on the drier side (although again, lower-end POPs will be needed for diurnal influences). With the region being on the eastern periphery of the ridge over the southwest and southern plains, hot temperatures will continue…though at least in the short term heat index values appear to be just below heat advisory threshold.

Going into the long range, the region will remain on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned H5 ridge center to our west. This will continue the mostly dry northerly flow through midweek. However, the globals do indicate a very weak mid and upper level low trying to pinch off form the persistent weakness over the SE United States. The features appears rather benign and perhaps maybe just enough to cool the upper levels just a bit for some additional convection, but the lackluster QPF signal within the globals doesn`t give much confidence for a higher POP forecast later this week. This feature eventually gets caught in the easterly flow around the strong high to the north…which should eventually build eastward into the lower Mississippi River Valley replacing mid level weakness. Initial look at the globals for this weekend and perhaps a sneak peak into early next week looks very warm/hot across the region as a 597 dam heat bubble sets up over the Ark Ozarks. Interestingly enough, both GFS and ECM have this feature and at this range in very good agreement. So, the primary story next weekend will likely be the heat and perhaps lower-end rain chances continuing during peak heating.