6/29 – Rob Martin’s “Morning Storms Also” Wednesday Night Forecast

Don’t be too fooled by the drier conditions most of us had this afternoon. Much of the activity actually occurred this morning as nocturnal storms formed in the gulf before skirting the coastline. Leftover cloud cover kept temps down a bit this afternoon and kept the atmosphere a bit more stable, thus limiting storm development later in the day. However, the atmosphere will be re-charging to end the week. At the surface, a nearly stationary frontal boundary remains just to the northwest of our area. The western Gulf of Mexico disturbance will gradually move onshore along the middle or upper Texas coast over the next two days before lifting north and dissipating.

While there doesn’t appear to be large scale forcing mechanisms to focus t-storm development, there’ll be plenty of moisture, instability and differential heating available for t-storms development during the day especially during maximum heating. As is typical in this kind of air mass, expect showers and storms to fire over the coastal waters overnight and into the morning hours, waning in those areas as the morning progresses. Over land, expect the best rain chances during the afternoon and early evening hours most places – the main exception being in coastal areas where marine storms could wander onto land in some areas.

As we get later into the weekend, high-pressure will try to re-establish itself across the area, but never totally succeeds; there is likely to be daily development of scattered showers and storms during the diurnally favored development times. The upper ridging might allow for a bit later development, with highs nudging back toward 90 for the weekend, and lower 90s early next week.

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