6/27 – Rob Martin’s “Shower Activity Increases” Monday Night Forecast
Spotty, heavy showers popped up again Monday afternoon, and we’re expecting increased coverage as we head through the week. On top of that we’re done with heat advisories for a while as temperatures return to more-typical early-summer numbers. A stalled front over the area will act as a trigger mechanism for showers and t-storms all week long. An area of low pressure along the front in northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to drift slowly westward over the next few days, with the blocking pattern finally breaking down. This low has a small chance (20%) of tropical development as it drifts toward the Texas coast later in the week, with no impacts here. The air will remain quite humid and saturated through the work week. The pattern will be t-storm threat each day, increasing late morning, dissipating by mid-evening.
Locally heavy rainfall is quite likely on a daily basis throughout the week. Most of the area has been dry in June, especially over the last couple weeks, so no widespread excessive rainfall issues are expected in the short term. However, isolated occurrences of street flooding wouldn’t be a surprise, as storms that do pop up will be very slow movers, adding to the possibility of training along with an occasional rogue severe storm.
The deep moisture isn’t going anywhere any time soon, with daytime temperatures somewhat dependent on varying cloud cover. There are some indications that high-pressure may try to build back into the area late in the holiday weekend, which would bump temperatures back up.