6/17 – The Chief’s “Tropical Rain/T-Storms” Monday Morning Forecast
An area of high-pressure is currently centered over the Carolinas this morning, with a weakness along the southern plains. This is combining with the Central American flow to pump deep moisture northward across the local area. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Bay of Campeche over the next couple. The impulse that produced showers and storms across the area on Sunday has moved north of the area, but the next impulse is already noted on water vapor imagery over the central Gulf of Mexico moving northward.
Deep moisture is expected to remain in place today. Expect pretty widespread areal coverage of precipitation today, which will produce locally heavy downpours (2 inches per hour possible). Not everyone will see rainfall that heavy, but if one occurs over an urban or poor drainage area, it will have the potential to cause localized flash flooding. Over the course of the day, areal average rainfall of 1 to 2 inches appears likely, with spot higher totals. However, don`t expect widespread totals heavy enough to justify a Flood Watch at this time. Similar to Sunday, expect a significant decrease in areal coverage of showers/storms toward sunset this evening, through the overnight hours. Another surge of showers and storms is expected on Tuesday, however, the impulse driving that round is expected to be further west, more toward western Louisiana, where the axis of heavier rainfall is expected.
Expect INCREASED WINDS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, as a Wind Advisory may be necessary across coastal areas near and to the south of Interstate 10 on Tuesday. The persistent SE winds expected will cause higher tide levels along east and south facing shorelines as early as late tonight.
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be comparatively dry as high pressure build back into the area. We should be back to more of a summertime sea-breeze pattern with overnight/early morning marine activity and isolated to scattered afternoon precipitation over land.
