6/15 – Brittany’s “Halfway There” Wednesday Morning Forecast
Upper ridging forecast to drift slowly westward over the next few days to be centered over Kansas/Oklahoma by Friday. Main forecast question is whether ridging is far enough north to allow coastal areas to get into easterly flow deep enough to allow larger areal coverage of convection than what has occurred today. GFS appears to be much more inconsistent on convective development than NBM/NAM/ECMWF the next few days, and this would also impact max temperatures. Looking at CAMs (convective allowing models) doesn`t exactly make the decision any more clear cut. GFS falls in line with some of the HRW modeling but not the HRRR. Precipitable water values remain supportive of convection with forecasts in the 1.8 to 1.9 range.
Will trend PoP forecast below the GFS solution but not quite as low as the ECMWF for now, which leaves PoPs in the chance range and high temps primarily in the mid 90s. Apparent temp values generally in the 103-106 range, so no advisories at this time. Upper ridge is at it`s furthest west extent on Friday and then shifts back to the east through the weekend into early next week. This is likely to suppress convection through the weekend with temperatures in the mid and possibly upper 90s. Probably will get into Heat Advisories on multiple days over the weekend into early next week with temperatures approaching record territory.