6/10 – Brittany’s “Cooler” Friday Morning Forecast
The risk for severe weather today will be greater than what we saw yesterday, with the main risks being damaging straight line winds around or > than 60mph, large hail and can`t not mention intense rainfall rates leading to localized flooding (given 1.8-2″ PW`s). Environmental conditions remain supportive for a few locally strong thunderstorms. This complex is quickly out of here Friday night, but with some lingering convection possible. If dynamics can offset and we can recover enough, upscale growth of scattered convection could be possible through the night. Impulses may continue to ride the flow during the day on Saturday.
Long term, Sunday through Wednesday, the upper ridge axis will begin to shift eastward on Sunday, marking a transition to another less active period of weather. Whatever is left of the lingering surface boundary could serve as a focus for a few isolated to widely scattered showers Sunday afternoon, but in general, subsidence aloft associated with the upper ridge will suppress convection. The high continues to shift eastward during the first half of the work week, and really begins to amplify and strengthen by Tuesday as an upper trough digs into the southwestern CONUS. As the high strengthens, convection will basically shut off with the exceptionof a few rogue showers/storms each afternoon. Any showers or storms that do manage to develop would likely do so along a sea breeze boundary where lift is enhanced A lack of cloud cover and showers/storms will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid 90s by mid week. With dewpoints forecast in the mid to even upper 70s, afternoon heat index values will easily cross the century mark, and may be flirting with heat advisory criteria by mid week. Will need to monitor trends as the time period gets closer.