5/8 – The Chief’s “Heat Indices In The 90s” Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

HOT…HUMID & BREEZY afternoon ahead…

On Thursday a strong upper level disturbance will help send a cold front southward toward the region. During the afternoon, in response to a modest impulse over central TX, clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the I35 corridor and slide eastward within the flow that over our location should become more zonal as the parent trough aloft continues to evolve/amplify upstream. At this juncture, low level shear appears to be very modest, but instability will be on the more moderate to higher end. Models have a cluster of t-storms moving through in the early morning hours Friday generally along and north of the I-12/10 corridor. This is where SPC has delineated a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Primary concern will be strong gusty winds with bowing signatures. Additionally, with a bit higher instability, cannot ignore at least a low-end severe hail threat as well but this will likely be a secondary concerns.

Any residual shower/storm activity lingering over from the short term period will quickly exit stage east and south. At the surface, the cold front will continue to drop southward as an upper level Canadian trough continues to amplify over the eastern U.S. With lower heights and thicknesses along with low level Cold Air Advection. Going into the weekend, a more progressive pattern takes over. Temperatures start out around average on Saturday and Sunday with a more zonal flow over the region. However, all eyes begin to shift upstream later into Sunday. The front that pushes through late in the short term period or early in the long term period lift back closer toward our region. With surface convergence and perhaps some help from isentropic upglide, rain chances increase later into the weekend and especially to start the new workweek.