5/8 – Rob Knight’s “Mid-Week” Morning Forecast
Surface flow pattern has become fully onshore oriented with increasing fetch from the Yucatan Peninsula and Caribbean Sea. This will continue to funnel tropical moisture to the region that becomes activated by frontal zone currently developing and maturing over the central Plains States. A frontal zone will steadily move southeast and elongate over the forecast area to eventually stall by Friday.
The scenario places a forcing mechanism in a moisture rich environment for a potential of flooding rains heading into the weekend.
Uncertainties lie in days ahead as to where frontal boundary positions resonate over the weekend, but short-term rains will prime soil moisture content that should lower flash flooding. Rainfall can become quite efficient and may outperform model guidance Saturday and Sunday. A quasi-stationary front and a prolonged wet period will continue through the weekend into next week.