5/4 -The Chief’s “Big Changes Ahead” May The 4th Afternoon Forecast

An upper level high pressure will build in across the middle of the country from the Gulf Coast all the way to the Northern Plains. It will start to feel like summer with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Not a particularly large spread in forecast temps, however, models are trending on the warmer side of guidance and more plausible considering the placement of the high pressure in relation to the area.

The high pressure appears to flatten some Friday as a weak disturbance tracks along its northern periphery. That’s all it will take with such warm local temps for thunderstorm potential. Northeastern portions of the region have been outlooked with Marginal Severe Risk from SPC. Models suggest at least some potential for a remnant t-storm complex to slide south across SW and Coastal MS during the afternoon hours. Medium range models are more inclined for widespread thunderstorm development rather than complex moving through.

Saturday looks quite similar to Friday with another disturbance moving through the high pressure, possibly closer to the area. The remainder of the forecast period transitions to a fairly typical summer pattern as the upper level ridge shifts east and zonal flow develops aloft. With continued above normal temps and sufficient moisture in place, there will likely be scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. Highs will generally be a few to several degrees above normal.

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