5/24 – Rob’s “Midday News” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

HEAVY RAINFALL due to a combination of daytime heating and sufficient surface moisture to produce afternoon thunderstorms.

Friday will be a repeat but with even more coverage due to a northern stream trough racing across the country and weakening the ridge north of the area. Expecting pops in the 50 to 60% range. High temps will likely fall down by a few degrees due to increased coverage.

The potentially more impactful weather still looks to be over the Memorial Day weekend. The bad news is model disagreement appears to be about the same with hundreds of miles difference in placement of high moisture flow. Models vary rainfall through the area/region between 1-2″ to 2-10″. The fact that the region has been quite dry over the last few weeks will aide in mitigating flooding aspects for at least the beginning of the event. This can only be helpful to a certain extent and any persistent training later in the event could lead to flash flooding. At the moment, the Mississippi Gulf coast stands the best chance to be most impacted.

Building high-pressure west/southwest of the area will force the tropical moisture east and out of the region once past the middle of next week. Temperatures will bounce back into the lower to mid 90s.