5/23 – Rob’s “Tropical Watch” Midday News Forecast
The normal summer showers/t-storms distribution will continue through at least Thursday, as precipitation chances will begin to move further up afterwards. A plume of moisture is now beginning to develop toward the area. This will deepen and become oriented SE to NW from the Yucatan to near New Orleans over the next 48 hours. The broad large circulation associated with the NW Caribbean sfc low should be either inland over the Yucatan or very close through Thursday. The circulation is expected to then begin moving northward and into the gulf by Thursday night or early Friday.
This system will be messy as dry air is brought southward on its western side and deep moisture is brought northward to the east. The surface-low should be able to deepen a bit once leaving the Yucatan and follow along this channel of moisture northward. This is where things get complicated. Models show the potential for a TD or TS late in the weekend into Memorial Day. We will continue to monitor this system and keep you updated.