5/19 – Britt’s “Very Warm” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

Today will be quiet, humid, and warm with HI readings mostly in the mid to upper 90s and a few 100s. Saturday the chance for rain will increase. Southwest flow aloft, slowly cooling mid level temps, and increasing moisture should help to provide a better chance for storms. On the other hand mid level heights will actually increase and there is no real forcing moving in yet nor upper level jet support.

Looks like a big change in the making as we head into the end of the weekend and to start the new work week. All of the reliable guidance is in rather good agreement with a boundary sitting over the area and either a trough axis situated just west of the area or even a weakness sitting over the region.

The combination of that s/w, a weak boundary basically beginning to stall, and more than adequate moisture in place should lead to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. If rain isn`t already occuring in some of the CWA at sunrise it will not take long for convection to fire. This will be a positive in multiple areas, first it will help to provide much needed rain fall in a good portion of the area but it along with the increasing cloud cover will help to keep temps down considerable; highs may only reach the lower 80s to mid 80s.

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