5/10 – The Chief’s “Spotty Morning Rain” Wednesday Morning Forecast

A closed mid-level low pressure system over TX is more of a double barrel low as the eastern portion of the low led to all of the convection yesterday. Today will bring some drier weather for about half of the area however it may take getting through some scattered light showers during the early morning hours today. After this morning convection finally tapers off which should be around 9/10 am. The lack of convection will lead to warmer afternoon temps but will also lead to deeper mixing with dew-points possibly dropping into the mid-60s and thus making it even harder for convection to develop. Highs in the mid to upper 80s can be expected across most of the area.

Now heading into tonight but more so early Thursday and through the day Thursday the forecast becomes highly uncertain again. The amount, strength, and timing of convection will be highly dependent on multiple factors and at this time using recent history may be a better forecast but past results often does not guarantee future performance. The low/trough even though it is opening up will be moving through the Lower MS Valley and this should provide more than adequate forcing across the area. The question is when and where will convection be going on late tonight/early Thursday.

Friday will bring more of a Summer-like feel with mid to upper 80s again and scattered midday and afternoon convection. The high pressure still won’t be able to establish itself over the region quite yet as there will likely be a lingering weakness from our old system still sitting over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Mother’s Day weekend will bring fairly dry conditions with a few afternoon t-storms possible as temperatures will max in the mid/upper 80s.

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